Fewer buyers signed contracts on homes in September than in any month since the National Association of REALTORS® started tracking it. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% from August to 66.0, and it was down 11.3% from a year earlier.
If you're thinking about selling, that headline can sound alarming. It doesn't mean homes have stopped selling. It does mean buyers have more choices and less urgency, and that changes how you should plan. Here's what the numbers say, what's happening in metro Atlanta, and what you can do about it.
What "pending home sales" actually measures
A home is "pending" when the buyer and seller have signed a contract but haven't closed yet. Because closings usually follow a contract by one to two months, pending sales are an early signal of where completed sales are heading. When pending sales drop sharply, closed sales tend to follow in the next month or two.
NAR's index uses contract activity in 2001 as its baseline of 100. A reading of 66.0 means contract signings in September were about a third below that baseline, and the lowest the index has recorded.
The September numbers
Every region of the country fell, both from August and from a year earlier. The West dropped the most, and the South, which includes Georgia, fell 8.2% in a single month.
NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, pointed to one main cause: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates." He also noted that the small number of distressed properties is keeping prices steady, and that "buyers and sellers may simply be holding back until mortgage rates move favorably."
Why it happened: a fast jump in mortgage rates
Freddie Mac's weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.66% in late August. By October 8 it had reached 7.40%. That's a jump of about three-quarters of a percentage point in six weeks. The most recent reading, for the week of October 22, was 7.32%.
For a buyer, that move adds up quickly. On a $300,000 loan, the monthly principal and interest payment at 7.40% is roughly $150 more than at 6.66%. Many buyers who were ready in August either lost buying power or decided to wait.
What it looks like in metro Atlanta
Atlanta is following the national pattern. Realtor.com's data for the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metro shows 7,859 pending listings in September 2026. That's down 4.8% from August, down 7.7% from September 2025, and the lowest September count in Realtor.com's data, which goes back to 2016.
At the same time, the number of homes for sale keeps climbing. Active listings reached 29,735 in September, up 4.3% from a year ago. That's close to four homes on the market for every one under contract. The typical home sat for 60 days, the same as a year earlier.
In plain terms: more sellers are competing for fewer buyers. We covered the effects of that, including more price cuts and seller concessions, in our look at Atlanta price cuts and concessions.
What this means if you're selling
A record-low month for contracts doesn't mean your home won't sell. It means the plan matters more than it did a year or two ago. A few practical points:
- Price for today's buyer, not last spring's. Buyers are comparing your home against more listings, with a higher payment in mind. A realistic list price from the start usually beats chasing the market down with cuts.
- Plan for more time. With the typical Atlanta home taking about two months to sell, build that into your moving plans, and into your budget for mortgage, taxes, insurance and utilities while you wait.
- Expect to negotiate. Buyers have room to ask for repairs, closing-cost help or a lower price. Decide ahead of time what you're willing to give.
- Watch for contracts that fall through. When rates move fast, some buyers lose their financing between contract and closing. Ask how solid a buyer's loan approval is before you accept.
- Know your real net. The number that matters is what you walk away with after commissions, concessions, repairs and months of carrying costs. Our home sale calculator can help you estimate it.
If rates come down, buyers who are waiting could come back quickly. Nobody can promise when that will happen, so it's worth having a plan that works either way.
Where a cash offer fits
A cash buyer doesn't need a mortgage, so a jump in rates doesn't change their ability to close. That can matter if you're on a deadline, if your home needs work that would scare off a financed buyer, or if you simply don't want to wait out a slow market.
The trade-off is price. Cash buyers usually offer less than you might get on the open market with time and repairs. The right choice depends on your home, your timeline and your numbers, which is why it helps to see both options side by side. Our cash offer vs. listing comparison walks through the differences.
How Guaranteed Cash Offer helps
With one request, we connect you with vetted local cash buyers and a licensed real estate agent's estimate of what your home could sell for if you list it. You see both side by side and decide what's right for you. There's no fee and no obligation. Request your offers here.
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean when pending home sales drop?
Pending sales count homes that are under contract but not yet closed. A drop means fewer buyers signed contracts that month, which usually points to fewer closed sales over the next month or two.
Are home prices falling because pending sales are at a record low?
Not necessarily. NAR's chief economist said the limited number of distressed properties is helping keep prices steady. Slower sales tend to show up first as longer time on market, more price cuts and more negotiating rather than sharp price drops.
Is now a bad time to sell my house in Atlanta?
It's a slower time, not a closed market. Homes are still selling, but buyers have more choices. Sellers who price realistically, plan for more time and compare their options tend to do better than those who wait for last year's conditions to return.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before selling?
Lower rates could bring buyers back, but no one can reliably predict when that will happen. Waiting also costs money each month you own the home. Compare what you'd net by selling now with what waiting might cost you.
Why would a cash offer help in a slow market?
Cash buyers don't rely on mortgage approval, so rising rates don't stop them from closing. That can mean more certainty and a faster timeline, usually in exchange for a lower price than a traditional listing might bring.
Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, "Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September" (Oct. 20, 2026); HousingWire; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, via FRED (MORTGAGE30US); Realtor.com Residential Listings Database for the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metro, via FRED (PENLISCOU12060, ACTLISCOU12060, MEDDAYONMAR12060). Payment estimate is principal and interest only on a 30-year fixed loan. Hero photo by Richard Bell on Unsplash.